Yikes. Busy day / week at work so I haven’t had a lot of time to spend on this. But here, for the record, are my picks …

MIDWEST:
Kansas, UNLV, Maryland, New Mex St, Ohio St, OK St, GTown, San Diego St (upset).
Kansas, Maryland, OK St (upset), GTown.
Kansas over GTown.

WEST:
Syracuse, Florida St (9 over 8), Vandy, UTEP (upset, the dreaded 5/12), K State, Florida (upset), Pitt, Minnesota (upset).
Syracuse, Vandy, K State, Pitt.
Syracuse over Pitt (Pitt reaching Regional, mild upset).

EAST:
Kentucky, Texas, Wisconsin, Temple, WVU, Missouri (upset), New Mexico, Marquette
Kentucky, Wisconsin, WVU, Marquette (upset)
West Virginia over Kentucky (upset) OK, I can envision Kentucky doing well, but I just can’t bring myself to put it down on paper. Besides, I think WVU is coming in with a burr in their saddle.

SOUTH:
Duke, Louisville (slight upset), Purdue, Texas A&M, Villanova, St Mary’s (upset), Baylor, Notre Dame
Duke, Texas A&M (slight upset), Villanova, Notre Dame (upset)
Villanova over Duke (slight upset).

FINAL FOUR:
Kansas over Syracuse
Villanova over WVU
Villanova over Kansas for the Championship.

So, only one 5/12 upset pick. A lot of major love. A lot of Big East love. And I won’t mind a bit if a couple of upstarts take out Duke and Kentucky early and screw up my undercard. It would be a small price to pay for that joy. That said, I would hardly consider Kentucky’s potential second-round opponent Texas an upstart. The committee didn’t do the Cats any favors there.

OK, for the record, my pick in the Super Bowl:  Colts by 10, in a high-scoring affair.

Set aside the end of the regular season when the Colts and Saints were resting.  Look at the two teams’ run in the playoffs.  Indianapolis has rolled through two stout defenses while two weeks ago New Orleans needed overtime to beat a team that turned the ball over 5 times.

The Saints’ strategy will be to punish Peyton Manning as they did Brett Favre.  Good strategy if you can make it a reality, but bad idea to talk about it.  First of all, if there is a quarterback the refs will protect more than Brett Favre, it’s Peyton Manning.  Second, the day after New Orleans made their defensive game-plan known, the NFL came out and admitted that the Saints should have been flagged for one of their more egregious hits on Favre.  If you put Manning on the ground today, it had better be super clean.

All that aside, I don’t think New Orleans can pressure the QB in a game-changing way.  Indy has a decent line and Manning is second to none in his ability to read, adjust at the line and get rid of the ball quickly.  You won’t get to Manning with your base package and when you blitz he’ll find the open man.

I see Indy coming out and playing their game.  A lot of no huddle, and surgical precision.

So it will be the Saints’ challenge to try and keep up.  And that’s where it gets interesting.  You can’t look past New Orleans’ offense.  I don’t think the Colts “D” can shut them down.  But I do think they can come up with enough stops to give Peyton Manning breathing room.  The potential absence or reduced effectiveness of Dwight Freeney made me dial my pick back from two touchdowns.

Aside from the analysis, I also shudder to imagine the love-fest and avalanche of political correctness that will be unleashed should the Saints win.  If you’ve lost your home or are still struggling to get your business back on its feet after 4 1/2 years, a month from now is it really going to make a difference who won the Super Bowl?  Don’t let the blabbering mouths deceive you with overestimations of the importance of the sport from which they derive their livelihood.  Big game.  Exciting.  But next week we’ll be talking about who is on the bubble for March Madness.

Warning:  This could well degenerate into an extended Favre rant … we’ll see.

First of all, I must concede.  Coming into this season, I fully expected to see NY Jets Favre, or 2nd last Packer season Favre this year.  I figured him for 50/50 picks/TD’s.  And I didn’t see him lasting the whole season.  Couldn’t have been more wrong.  This season was a smash, and even more so when you consider the age factor.

That said, the old gunslinger showed up just in time to save Packer fan from two weeks, and possibly an entire off-season of miserable Favre over-exposure.  Sure, there is plenty of blame to go around.  Had “All Day” managed to hang on to the ball that last drive might have been irrelevant.  The sudden shift to conservative mode in that series didn’t help.  12 men in the huddle set Favre up.  But!  Up to that moment the Vikings were still in position to ice a trip to the Super Bowl in the closing seconds of regulation.  Alas, this was not the first, or even the second time that a Favre-led team’s final play of the season on offense resulted in an interception.  Thank you, football gods.

– B –

So now begins the annual “Will Favre retire?” off-season circus.  The really awesome thing is that no one, not even Favre himself, could say anything to squelch this noise.  God Himself could descend on halftime at the Super Bowl and announce Favre’s plans and no one would believe it.  LOL!!  Enjoy it Minnesota.  You get what you pay for.

– B –

For a serious analysis of the prospects … Even if Favre were in his prime, expecting another season like this one would be quite a reach.  Only Manning and Brady can turn in seasons like that year after year.  In addition, Green Bay and Chicago are on the rise.  The Vikings’ schedule will be tougher.

On the other hand, whether or not Favre is wiped out right now is irrelevant.  It has been years … YEARS since Favre didn’t feel like retiring at this time of the year.  Next August he’ll be rested.  The whole world will be talking about football.  He’ll get that itch.

Brad Childress has said he won’t put a deadline on Favre’s decision.  Wow.  Generous of him.  Like deadlines have ever accomplished anything with Favre.  And besides, isn’t Childress the guy who picked Favre up at the airport, halfway through the pre-season last Summer?

Minnesota is playing with fire.  A lot of things are forgotten when a team wins 13 games.  If the Vikings were to start out next season by losing a couple of games, let’s see how many players would forget that Favre was kicking back at home while they were puking in the summer sun.

– B –

How many playoff games has Aaron Rodgers won?  Wow, am I getting sick of hearing this one.  Comparing an 18-yr vet to a 2-yr starter?  Rodgers compares favorably to Favre at the same point in his career, and he is far ahead of prime time Favre in the reckless department.

– B –

Do you know where your QB is?  To me this is the major issue here.  Do you know who your QB will be two seasons from now?  A team either knows this, or has a problem that will preclude major success.  Green Bay knows who their QB of the future is.  So do the NY Jets.  Minnesota?  We won’t know who their 2010 signal caller is until kickoff in the regular season.  Two years from now?  It’s a good bet he’s not on their current roster. 

– B –

Moving on … would they give up on the Pro Bowl already.  After this season, the league’s “All Star” game will feature neither Peyton Manning nor Drew Breese?  Ridiculous.  This concept just doesn’t work with Pro Football.  The sport is so physical that each contest takes its toll on all who participate.  Risk of injury makes a mid-season classic impossible.  And by the time the season is over, everyone is out of gas.

– B –

Finally, I’m picking the Colts.  Prior to the Conference Championships my thought was that whoever came out of the NFC would be my overwhelming favorite.  But, I was expecting Indy to struggle with the Jets.  Actually, the Colts are playing their best football of the season right now.  Credit the Jets “D.”  They did a good job of curtailing Wayne and Clark.  Manning was still able to carve them up.  And I don’t see Indy helping the Saints out with massive turnovers.

Either way I’m really looking forward to the game.

Time to catch up on the NFL where, this past Sunday, we saw that same magic that has made Wade Phillips and Norv Turner the unremarkable and overpositioned head coaches that they are.

In San Diego the Chargers continue to be under-achievers under Turner.  And let’s just dispel a few misconceptions here.  It wasn’t about missed field goals.  It wasn’t about an on-sides kick.  It was under-achievement, pure and simple.  Those things didn’t help, but this was the NFL version of the Massachusetts Senate Race.  It shouldn’t have been so close that a field goal or two would matter.  The game shouldn’t have been in doubt with two minutes left.

Big relief though.  Folks (not sure who) were worried that Turner might be fired.  Silly Charger fans.  If a coach wants out of San Diego he needs to win 14 regular season games.

Thankfully, Wade Phillips has a couple of things going for him.  First, expectation management.  So much has been made of the annual December / Playoff swoon, that suddenly one playoff victory constitutes a smashing success.  Heck, one playoff victory in three seasons with this highly talented team and not only is Phillips coming back, Jerry Jones is talking extension.

And there’s the main thing in Phillips’ favor.  Jerry Jones would sooner die than and admit fallibility.  Phillips was his decision, mainly because Phillips is, um, malleable.  That’s the kind of coach Jones likes.  Not guys like Jimmy Johnson who can be a major distraction, what with all of their success.  Jones has been criticized for the Phillips hire ever since he made it.  This means that Phillips will not be leaving Dallas until he either wins a Super Bowl or dies trying.  No, wait, no, even death won’t offer an escape.  Jones will continue to roll his cold, pudgy corpse out to the sideline each Sunday until some season, if only by pure chance, Dallas stumbles ass-backwards into something resembling post-season success.

Seattle?  Gotta admit, I was shocked.  Pete Carroll has one of the best pro football gigs going at USC.  Why would he stoop to take the Seahawks job?

It’s called the Calipari Gambit and it works!  When the NCAA starts sniffing around and hitting pay dirt, it’s time to move on and leave the school to pay for the corruption on your watch.  Fair enough.  USC hired Carroll from the NFL.  They knew he had a history of paying his players.

And let’s face it, Carroll has led a charmed life recently.  Any time you can hand out a house and continue on as head coach for an additional 5 years … it’s all gravy.

Guidos:  OK, they are welcome in the 10’s, but can we just leave them on the Jersey shore and off TV.  Admittedly I don’t watch, but it seems like every time I slide by MTV, there it is, enough hair gel to power a third-world country for a year.  I did watch when they first did this a couple years ago.  The featured Guido on there had a temper and I was hoping to see him get tazed in some kind of run-in with the police.

Mid-Major Rationalization:  As I write this I’m keeping an eye on the TCU – Boise State game, and it’s just a mid-major love-fest.  On each play we don’t just hear what happened, but also praise for the players’ knowledge in making the play.  It’s like we’ve got 22 Tim Tebow clones running around out there with all the fawning from the booth.

These guys don’t play a champions’ schedule, and I’m sick of hearing the contrived statistics that are used in an attempt to rationalize that.  The latest is that TCU beat 6 teams who won their bowl games.  Half of division I goes to bowl games.  Big freaking deal.  Each year, the teams that are up for the National Championship play 2-3 other teams who could win it all before they even get to the final game.  The Boise State’s and TCU’s don’t play any.  Playing a few carefully selected mediocre teams from the major conferences amid a schedule full of cupcakes doesn’t elevate a team to elite status.

Lame Beer Commercials:  Coors Light, Bud Light, you’re letting us down.  Those Coors Light spots where they splice in clips from football coach press conferences jumped the shark at inception.  And the “Too Light / Too Heavy” spots … another idea that seems like it should have possibilities but suffers mightily in the execution.  Come on guys.  I still remember the golden days with Bob Uecker in the “Less Filling / Tastes Great” spots for Miller Lite.  Those are some big shoes to fill.

Politicians Who Don’t Govern The Way They Run:  I know, now I’m just getting greedy.

More media madness and another disappointing fall from grace.  Actually I’m pretty fortunate not to have had the time to sit down and weigh in on this one sooner.  I’d have wound up taking back a lot of what I would have said a week ago.

Tiger – the Real Surprise:  You know, what is / was really out of joint isn’t what’s happening now.  It was the perception of Tiger prior to now.  I’ve previously contended that we don’t really know famous people.  This was especially true of Woods.  Has there ever been a less forthcoming superstar athlete?  You can’t get the guy to say anything substantial about golf, yet somehow he was made out to be a straight arrow.  And this isn’t a mystery either.  In a world where a new scandal seems to break every week, the absence of dirt is all the proof most people need.

On Infidelity:  I don’t endorse it.  It’s very disappointing.  But this is the world we have to live in.  I’ve long since reconciled myself to the fact that a lot of the athletes and entertainers that I see, and for that matter probably some of the people I encounter when I’m out and about are cheaters.  If that’s going to be a deal-breaker, if I were to try to steer completely clear of these folks, then I might as well go live in a cave.

Silence:  So, I guess that’s why I’m all for Tiger keeping quiet on this.  I don’t need to know the details.  I don’t want to know them.  Just shut up and golf.  Besides, what would Tiger gain by an open confessional in front of the media?  Especially now that we see the true scope of this thing.  An isolated affair, a few instances of bad judgment, sure.  Again, I don’t condone it, but in this media-saturated world, you can get out in front of that and head off the idle chatter with some humble talk and apparent contrition.  But this dude is a hound.  There is nothing you can say to gloss over that.  Batten down the hatches and let the tongues wag.

The Rumor Mill:  So, I had to laugh at the early media pleas for Tiger to call a presser and come clean.  This was the only way, it was said, to head off the rumor mill.  Only one problem.  It was the operators of said rumor mill who were saying this.  So in essence the deal is … give us something juicy or we’re going to make it up.

Tiger – the Real Disappointment:  As I said, I understand that infidelity is pervasive in our world, especially among the famous.  What really disappoints me is that this whole thing refutes some things that we have seen in Tiger, the awesome golfer, over the years.  The judgment.  The care.  The commitment.  The absolute mastery that he applies to his craft, it turns out, is 180 degrees out of phase with his reckless, chaotic, ill-advised approach to his personal life.

One question:  The one thing I wonder is why all these women didn’t come forward sooner.  I mean, if they were willing to dime Tiger out … and really, if you can’t trust someone who is willing to carry on an affair with a married person, who can you trust?  I digress.  If they had this in them, why the wait?  It’s not like the scandal industry suddenly sprang up after Tiger crashed his Escalade into that tree.  Naughty texts, and damning voice mails will always be in demand.

All that said, this thing is dead by the time Tiger takes to the links again.  This has all sprang up within two weeks time.  One side effect of that is that we’ve quickly become de-sensitized.  If another woman comes forward tomorrow, already the reaction will be “ho hum, another one?”  It’ll get a little play because there is always more air time than there is legitimate news to fill it.  But unless we discover that Woods is also a heroin addict, the shock has already peaked.

I’m sure some will try to bring it up the first few times Woods is back out in the public domain.  But as I’ve already mentioned, Tiger has been dodging attempts to pry substance out of him for better than a decade.  He’ll manage.

This isn’t to suggest that damage hasn’t been done.  He has gone from “great guy” to great golfer, and well, that’s really where the perception should have been in the first place.  At the end of the day this is just another example of the universe sorting itself out.

Wow, what a game last night.  Incredible comeback by the Colts and a decision that will be talked about for a long time to come.

With just over 2 minutes left and a 6-pt lead, Bill Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2, deep in the Pats end of the field.  The gambit failed giving Peyton Manning and the Colts a short field for the game-winning TD.

So, I want to jump all over Belichick for this one because, mainly, I can’t stand the Pats.  I respect them, but can’t stand them.

But, I have to admit that my immediate thought, before a day of contemplating and listening to Sports Talk, was, “They’ll pick this (the first down) up no problem and that’ll be the game.”  So, all other things being equal, I’ve got to concede that it wasn’t a horrible decision.  But, I still disagree with it.

At it’s core, the decision was this:  What do you have more confidence in, Tom Brady and the Offense’s ability to pick up 2 yards, or the Defense stopping Peyton Manning from driving the length of the field in two minutes?  Hard to fault a guy for gambling on Brady.

Statistically it was the right decision:  Yeah, I’ve seen the equations that mathematically “prove” Belichick made the correct decision.  Put your slide rules away geeks.  It’s a good point if you get to make the decision 10,000 times.  The only problem is, you only get one crack at it.  And the downside was incredible.  This game may well turn out to have a huge impact on the AFC Playoff Picture.

Yeah, but Belichick has more rings than you:  Agreed, BB has forgotten more about football than I’ll ever know.  But I do know one thing:  He didn’t win those rings with defenses that he couldn’t trust, and while he may be unconventional, Belichick didn’t win titles by taking excessive gambles like this.

About that Defense:  Here’s the sure loss in Belichick’s decision.  Whether or not the play succeeded, the coach announced loud and clear that he has no confidence in his defense.  Here again, this may not be the last we’ve heard of this.  The Pats may face Manning again … what then?  What do you say to the D when you’re prepping for that one?

Arrogance:  Was it really about the defense?  Part of me wonders if this wasn’t pure arrogance.  Belichick is a mad genius, but at times he does make decisions that are fraught with unnecessary risk.  Take two seasons ago when he was leaving his healthy QB in games that were essentially over just to run up the score.  I think that in part there is simply an arrogance there.  A sense that he can make whatever ridiculous decision and move it to success by the sheer force of his will.  He’s the NFL’s version of Obama, except that Belichick has a clue and most of what he does works.

The Time Out:  A testimony to how unexpected this move was was the Pats own unpreparedness.  Belichick was forced to take his final time out, which I think doomed the play.  Had they just run the play without giving the Colts an opportunity to gear up, they would have had a better chance of success.

The Insurance Concept:  This really isn’t about the offense any more than insurance is about the odds of you getting into a wreck.  Brady’s proficiency is irrelevant.  Even the head coaches of the league’s worst teams would probably feel confident that most times their teams could man up and grab two yards.  And, you may well drive the rest of your life without filing a claim on your auto policy.  This is about the downside.  If you do wreck, or if the team fails, the consequences are huge.  You were nervous about Peyton Manning having two minutes to drive 70 or 80 yards.  Sure, maybe he can do that.  But two minutes to drive 30 yards … yeah, that’s darn near a sure thing.

So, I can’t crucify Belichick for this one, but I do respectfully disagree with the call.

Unbelievable.  The big news out of Dallas today … Roy Williams complaining about “not connecting” with QB Tony Romo.

Are you kidding me?  Hey, Roy, are you sure Romo and Jason Whitten aren’t having secret meetings behind your back?

Talk about timing.  This comes as the Cowboys, after a dismal start, are riding a three-game win streak (to be fair, the 3 are 7-14 combined, but you play the team in front of you) into a showdown with Philadelphia for the division lead.

Is this guy a poor man’s TO or what?

Great interview with Dana White.  OK, is there ever any other kind of interview with the outspoken head of the UFC.  Great stuff on Hendo, the Ice Man, and Rampage.  Machida – Lesnar?

But the money line comes at the end, re: TUF.

If you go on the show and act like a dick, you come off like a dick.

This was in response to Rampage’s comments about how he is portrayed on this season of TUF.  I’m with Dana White on this one.  Every week we get a good, healthy chunk of Rampage being an a-hole.  There would have to be literally hours of him helping old ladies across the street that wound up on the cutting room floor to even begin to offset Rampage’s bad behavior.

The problem is, even if we didn’t get a peek behind the scenes, it is obvious in the results that Rampages is slacking in his coaching duties.  This coming Wednesday Rashad’s team will be going for their eighth win and a clean sweep of the preliminary bouts.  It’s not just that he didn’t pick well.  Rampage’s fighters are consistently under-achieving.

Unfortunately, we do get to see behind the scenes and are left asking, “Why is Rampage even there?”  He has made Ken Shamrock’s stint on the show look like a Dr. Phil episode.