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As expected, positive coverage of McCain’s ticket is dominating the weekend so far. Hot Air has a slightly different angle on things than most pieces have taken, and agrees with my analysis that Palin will be irresistible bait for Joe Biden.
OK, well, I had some Convention thoughts saved up anyway, and now McCain’s play … Wow! Let me start with that and work backward.
I love this pick. And not because of her politics, although that is important too. Seeing John McCain make a really sharp move is what fired me up. This took guts. It took smarts. And it took discipline. At the heart of my McCain reservations is the concern that he may be too much of a maverick. That at times he makes the “in your face” move just because he can. That would have been a Lieberman pick. Today he was a controlled maverick.
Palin is a sharp pick on so many levels. Obviously she is a great pick for conservatives. We were reluctantly going along anyway. This will keep us from wandering. And, as I said, it’s McCain showing that he may have some chops after all.
One thing I really love is the dynamic this sets up with Biden. Some have foolishly wondered if she can go toe-to-toe with the Senator from Delaware. She doesn’t need to. Palin’s presence is a temptation that Biden won’t be able to resist. You heard the bawdy talk in Denver. He’s aching for a fight. He’s on board to be the attack dog and I’m sure he was picturing a dust-up with Romney. But if Biden goes pit bull on Palin, the slow trickle of women voters toward the Republican ticket will become a tidal wave.
And I don’t think Biden can help himself. This windbag somehow thinks that decades of running his mouth on Capitol Hill somehow makes him more qualified than Palin who can boast a myriad of practical, tangible, meaningful accomplishments. All Palin needs in a debate with Biden is verbal judo. Let the Senator’s own momentum get him in trouble.
Then there is Palin’s personal experience. While Obama and Biden can talk about lofty, untested ideas from an untested man, her own life backs up her position. Anti-Abortion. Palin and husband eschewed abortion and added a Downs’ Syndrome child to their family. Defense. Palin’s son deploys on 9/11 (although Biden can at least match her there). And while we’ll be treated to limitless photo op’s of the others acting how they think “regular folks” act, Palin is regular folks.
And, this is just the latest in a series of events where McCain doesn’t just trump Obama, he embarrasses him. Last week much was made of Obama’s big secret. And when the big moment came, we got Crusty Joe Biden. It was the political equivalent of opening your Christmas present and discovering … a tie … that had been removed from your own closet 20 minutes earlier. I guess that’s why he finally went official with it in th middle of the night on a weekend. Fast forward one week, same scenario with John McCain. Gov. Palin was truly an electrifying surprise. Woo-hoo! We got the brand new X-Box in our package!
And the timing was impeccible. Credit McCain for a minimum of intereference with the anointing in Denver while it was going on. But not a moment more. It looks like Obama will get about half the bounce Kerry got from his Convention. McCain absolutely hijacked the media today, and with it being Friday he will likely own the long weekend. Of course it could be debated that McCain might have been better letting the media talk at length about Obama’s liberal laundry list of a speech.
Obviously experience is the wild card in the equation, and I’m curious what McCain was thinking. Was he assuming that Palin would take it away, and therefore sacrificing his primary line of attack in order to more agressively court female voters? Or was he banking on Palin’s presence keeping the experience debate on the table. I say, if they handle it right, McCain wins this one. Sure an Obama surrogate can throw out the mindless “lack of experience” charge if they are simply counting years. But that just opens the door for McCain, Palin or anyone else on that side to bring up more of Palin’s accomplishments and further demonstrate how, in a short time, her executive experience far outweighs Obama’s body of work. And we could probably make a good case for the complete lack of value in Biden’s decades of bloviation in the Senate.
I’d even go further and explain that while Palin lacks substantial time in high elected office, she has a demonstrated pattern of gaining positions she may not appear “qualified” for, and then succeeding wildly.
Suddenly I’m interested in this campaign!
I’m still sorting out my take on Obama picking Joe Biden as his running mate. I had to laugh at the media’s confusion over Obama not campaigning with his new mate as has become pre-convention tradition. I’m not surprised a bit and I don’t think you’ll see these two in the same place at the same time very much after the convention either. When you consider Obama’s campaign of hype, “Change” and mania, Joe Biden is the human buzz-kill. I say that after the convention Obama sees Biden off at the airport with something like, “Take it easy. If we win you’re invited to the inauguration.”
It’s hard to tell what, if any, long-term benefit Obama will reap from his choice. So far we’ve seen reaction from die-hard Obamaniacs who proclaim that Biden’s selection mends all the bridges and will bring much-needed unity. This begs the question, “Are we thinking of the same Joe Biden?” We’ve also seen reaction from the unreformed Hill-Raisers who wouldn’t vote for Obama if God were on the ticket because He is one step below and not quite as smart as Hillary.
Also, Obama keeping his VP selection a secret for two days makes that his most enduring accomplishment as a public servant so that’s kind of exciting.
Anyway, all eyes now turn to McCain’s selection. Dick Morris is arguing for a woman. Hugh Hewitt is back on the Romney bandwagon. And there is no shortage of gusto for Lieberman.
First of all, I don’t believe the #2 person makes a whole lot of difference in the end. HH correctly argued that they can give you a bounce when they are first announced, when they debate and when they speak at the convention. However, what effect selecting a woman as a running mate would have is unproven. No one could have dug Mondale out of his hole in ’84. Plus we are in a very different environment and there is a strong contingent of women still in flux.
At one time I thought Lieberman might be a good idea. Now that the war probably won’t be the driving issue in this election I’m re-thinking that. One of McCain’s weaknesses is that he hasn’t won the hearts of the conservative base. Most of us are resigned to hold our nose and vote for him, but we are suspicious. It would be best not to push it. Plus, Lieberman would make it a clean sweep with Senators holding all four spots on the two tickets. The clouds of doom and hopelessness that that thought brings are almost too much for me to handle.
Romney would certainly help the Republican ticket pick up the yet unclaimed Economics Leader mantle. But if you caught the McCain ads showing some of Biden’s past dissing of Obama over the weekend you have to shudder to think what Obama could unleash on a McCain – Romney ticket.
I’ve got to admit I like the woman idea provided McCain can be genuine about it. If such a pick is made and it comes across as a gimmick it will backfire.
So, it’s up to McCain. Obama’s pick doesn’t seem to add a lot of value and opens up new avenues for ridicule and missteps. This could be another opportunity for McCain to best Obama and seize an advantage.
Whoo-hoo! College Football is here. And I love that things are kicking off with South Carolina on Thursday. As I’ve said before, for me nothing heralds the arrival of the year’s best sport season like seeing Steve Spurrier moseying around the sidelines.
So, I’m doing ESPN’s College Pick’em again and this year the slates are brutal right from the start!
Week 1 is tough enough because you just don’t know what you are going to get until you actually see it on the field. Take Michigan’s crash and burn in the early going last season for example. You sensed they were on the decline but who knew it would be that bad.
In Pick’em, coupled with the general uncertainty there are some cases where the team that should be favored is on a mega-road trip. I never like those situation.
I am most confident in Oregon over visiting Washington, Clemson over visiting Alabama (I’d pick those teams anyway, but their being at home is icing on the cake … mmm, icing), and USC over host Virginia – California to Virginia … road trips don’t get much longer than that unless Hawaii is involved.
On the flip side, I don’t want any part of Utah at Michigan. Should be the Wolverines, right? Especially at home. But again. just think about what happened last year at this time. They salvaged a little respectability over the second half of the season, but now they’ve got a new coach and a team that wasn’t doing so well is suddenly having to learn a significantly different system. For my money this one is a coin flip. I’m taking Michigan because of Utah’s long trip and the fact that Ann Arbor is one of the game’s tougher road venues.
Also interesting is Michigan State at Cal. Last year’s Cal dominates this one going away. But I’m not so sure we’ll be seeing that same team. They’ve got a new QB while the old one is still on the squad. Never a great scenario when the guy holding the clipboard had the kind of smash season that Longshore had last year. But Cal should have a little room for growing pains. The Spartans aren’t exactly world-beaters at this point.
Shannon Love at Chicago Boyz has a great post contrasting the left and right in how they approach charity.
Dick Morris argues that given the tight Presidential race each candidate needs a safe (translated: boring) pick for their running mate.
On the Democratic side this rules out Hillary which I think has been a foregone conclusion for a while now. But, Morris also believes that this makes Evan Bayh (not a favorite of the left) and oft-mentioned Tim Kaine (shares Obama’s lack of credible experience) no-go’s. Morris suggests that Joe Biden would be the safe pick for Obama.
Joe Biden? I disagree that this would be a safe pick. Obama’s campaign is a mania. It’s all smoke and mirrors and showmanship. He needs to keep his fans jazzed for if they slow down long enough to consider substance, Obama is screwed. So picture the rock concert that Obama’s events turn out to be. The high-fiving, the fist-bumping, the fainting girls, the rich, well-educated candidate talking like he’s from the ‘hood. Into this mix steps Joe Biden? Long-winded, decades on the Hill, heavily partisan Joe Biden? And he’s there to share the mantle of “Change”? Doesn’t seem like a good fit.
Another problem for Obama is my “three syllable rule.” Tickets whose candidates have a combined three syllables in their last names tend to do the best in these elections. Reagan / Bush. Clinton / Gore. Bush / Cheney. This thing works, I tell you. So, by hogging all three syllables Obama has painted himself into a corner. He needs to pick someone with no last name. Shaq, Prince, Cher … keep your cell handy.
NBC’s Andrea Mitchell has accused the McCain camp of “cheating” during Rick Warren’s forum with the two Presidential candidates at his church last Saturday. Warren asked both men the same questions and by design McCain, who was interviewed second, was not to hear any of Obama’s discussion with Warren. The Obama Camp, which obviously includes NBC, claims that McCain somehow heard some of Warren’s discussion with Obama.
Hey, McCain was articulate, clear and on point so you can understand their suspicions.
Sheesh. Here I go re-visiting the Favre situation again. There is such mania and irrationality floating around out there right now that I just can’t help myself. So here goes some pre-season football notes …
About Favre the ex-Packer: Look! No one is saying that Aaron Rodgers is better than Favre, or that the Packers will be better this year with Rodgers than they would have been with Favre. The point is that 3-5 years from now Green Bay will be better for having been very intentional about their transition rather than riding the merry-go-round for another season or two.
I’ll also add that all the criticism of Packer management is based on the assumption that ’07 Favre will be taking the field this year. What if we see ’06 Favre? Suddenly the Pack will look like geniuses.
It’s like getting rid of a car after you’ve put 100k miles on it. Maybe it will give you another 20k economical miles before needing some serious repair. On the other hand it could crap out on a rainy day in the middle of you next business trip. You sacrifice a little on the upside to avoid disaster on the downside.
– B –
About Favre the Jet: Here’s the problem. Jets fans are so starved for hope that any sign of life will send them into a frenzy. To hear the accolades surround Favre’s start last weekend you’d think Joe Namath had shed his fur coat and was back in the guarantee business.
Favre looked like what he is – an aging veteran with a little gas left in the tank. He completed 5 passes. 4 were to wide open receivers. The 5th he threw into triple coverage. Get used to that one Jets fans. Today he’s a wiley superstar threading the needle. Check back in with me after he forces an ill-advised pass to kill a potential game-winning drive with your season on the line. And the enamored fan-base glosses over Favre going statue in the face of a less than imposing Redskin pass rush.
So, nothing that bodes ill for the long-term other than Favre’s lack of mobility. It was the first few series of the second pre-season game. You can’t read too much in to it.
– B –
Ocho Cinco is hurt. That’s a shame because you know he was terribly enthusiastic about getting out there and increasing his trade value this season.
– B –
Doing the same, expecting different – CFL edition: Some still have Ohio State #1 in the pre-season polls. But most have them #2 or 3 behind Georgia or Florida, which is a pretty safe bet. However great the Buckeyes may appear now, or after the entire regular season, it’s all just a prelude to having their ass handed to them by the cream of the SEC crop.
– B –
Personally, I think Dallas acquiring “Pacman” Jones is a really bad move. They are tempting fate. They are living on borrowed time as it is, after an entire issue-free season from TO. Now they add even more volatility to the mix. Sometimes I get the feeling Jerry Jones just likes to push the “I make stupid decisions because I can” envelope.
– B –
I continue to root for Charlie Weis. College Football is so much more fun when you have Notre Dame to hate on.
– B –
I’m doing ESPN’s College Pick’em again this year. Man! It is brutal right out of the gate. Case in point: Utah at Michigan. The Wolverines are top 25 yet only a 3 1/2 pt favorite which is pretty much what you get for being the home team. Plus it’s hard to forget how Michigan stunk up Ann Arbor in the early going last year. Thankfully Louisville – UK isn’t on the slate for week one’s picks. My heart is with the Cards but I’m nervous.
WhatIf is simulating the College Football season one week at a time. In week one, drumroll please … host Louisville over Kentucky though it’s a pretty narrow edge as their stats go. They have the Cards winning 62% of the time and averaging a 7-pt win.
Hopefully they are right, but I’m lacking confidence in Louisville this season. It’s strange really. Usually by now, the Cards would be all that we’d be hearing or talking about. This year the airwaves aren’t completely silent, but it is pretty quiet on that front which just reinforces my feeling that this will be an underwhelming season and I can totally picture that scenario starting out with UK coming to Papa John’s and kicking butt.
OK, this post’s title isn’t entirely fair. I’m assuming Amazon has an ebook / Kindle strategy, when I don’t know this to be true. There is certainly evidence to the contrary.
Wired has a post discussing Amazon’s Kindle and whether it will become the literary equivalent of the iPod. The post notes that while Kindle sales are increasing it is difficult to tell whether the thing can go mainstream. There are things you can do with a book such as read in the bathtub or curl up with it on the couch that just wouldn’t be prudent or as enjoyable with Amazon’s electronic device.
I for one am yearning for someone to go mainstream with a solid ebook reader. Every time I pack for a trip there is that last moment when I see how much room I have left in the suitcase and have to choose a book. I know what I’m in the mood for at the moment, but when I finally settle in at the hotel after a long day of driving and meetings, I might be up for something lighter. How nice it would be to just have one, paperback-sized device that would hold a reading option for all contingencies.
Before I look at the flaws in Amazon’s approach a couple of general thoughts.
First, I don’t think a proprietary product supplied by one book vendor will be the answer. While Amazon certainly has some attractive features one need look only at the price of the Kindle and Kindle books to see why. Going mainstream will probably require some kind of industry standard that can be adopted by a number of hardware suppliers and booksellers. This dynamic will keep prices at an attractive level for consumers. There are other formats out there, but I have yet to see a reasonably priced reader.
Second, and sadly, I must agree that iPod-esque success is probably not a reasonable goal. To be blunt, I share Steve Jobs’ observation that people don’t read anymore, although I would note that the problem doesn’t seem to be so dire as to prevent Jobs from writing books. I don’t think anyone can dispute that the demand for music and videos far exceeds the demand for reading. It would be nice if someone could come up with a snazzy, affordable reader that might re-kindle (pardon the pun) an interest in the written word.
OK, here is the problem with Amazon’s approach. They pretty much control the whole equation yet they’ve chosen to set up a self-defeating circle with this thing. First the Kindle itself is over-priced. $350 as I write this. It’s not that no one is buying it, but the price is enough of a barrier to limit the audience size.
But let’s just say I’m considering it. What do I look at next? Well, when I get my Kindle what does the library available to me look like? There seems to be a good number of books available in this format. If you are one who prefers to just browse and pick something good from what’s available, you’d probably be satisfied with the selection of Kindle books.
Personally, I can go with that mode sometimes, but much more often I have a specific idea of what I want in advance and if that’s not available I’m not going to be satisfied settling for something close. For example, I did a search on one of my favorite free market economists, Ludwig vonMises. This one has always worked as a great benchmark for me in testing out bookstores. If I ever were to have an ebook reader, Mises’ discussion of Socialism would be one of the first ebooks I would want to pick up. I search Amazon, there are a few Mises works available in Kindle format but not that one. Next I search for theologian Francis Schaeffer. Again some of his books available in Kindle, but none of the big three; The God Who is There, He is There and He is not Silent, and Escape from Reason. Not acceptable. There will probably be times when I would want to read some of the others, but there will be many more times when I want to read something in one of those three.
So, for my money, the catalog is still too small. Perhaps if the target audience were bigger, if there were more Kindle owners out there, there would be more incentive to translate a wider variety of titles into Kindle format. Of course if there were more titles available perhaps there would be more people buying Kindles. Though this all falls under Amazon’s umbrella, they aren’t making either side of the equation enticing enough to lift the other.
Generally the pattern with these things is to make the hardware readily affordable with the thought that once on board, the user will be buying ebooks for the rest of their life. But I guess you could go the other way and have a catalog that would make readers salivate and pony up insane amounts of cash for the reader.
There may be another complicating factor here. My guess is that the window of opportunity for Amazon, Sony or any other producer of ebook readers is narrow. The last time I used any kind of ebook reader was on my iPaq, years ago. I don’t use the iPaq anymore because I have almost all of that functionality on my phone now. That’s what is going on in the whole consumer electronics industry. Things are converging. Right now a device that only does e-reading seems to fill a need not well addressed by any other piece of technology.
It isn’t hard to see the notebook computer eventually rendering the single-purpose Kindle obsolete. You can already read ebooks on any computer. Problem is, for many it is still a bit of a hassle to break out and fire up their laptop, or to recline on the couch or curl up in bead with it. But look at the trends. Size is decreasing, the tablet (as opposed to clamshell) format is catching on, and developments in memory and battery power are moving toward much more convenience and ease of use.
The day is probably not far off when portable computers will match the Kindle in size and convenience. All the more reason for Amazon to keep prices high and get what they can while they can. And, all the more reason for the reading consumer to just wait and continue to enjoy the simple pleasure of holding a real live book in your hand as you read.