The NFL opens for business tonight when New Orleans visits Indy.  Whoooaaaa Nellie, that’s gonna be a barn-burner.  Anyway, that being the case, pro picks come first this week.

For some reason, probably me simply being insane, I entered the point-spread version of ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em.  Why!  In this age of parity it’s hard enough to pick the NFL straight up.  With a few exceptions, teams just don’t perform consistently enough from week to week to get any kind of reasonable bearing on things.  Thankfully, unlike college you don’t have to weight the games by confidence, so you can’t totally shoot yourself in the foot.

Week One:

On my first pass through the games I find myself giving away a lot of points (picking the favorite and spotting the underdog the point spread).  Mind you, I don’t put money on these things (see the previous paragraph as to why).  But I do know that consistently giving up points is a sure way to lose.  On the other hand home field is much less of a factor than in the college game.  So, without much else to go on, my strategy is:  don’t sweat home field, but watch the points.

New Orleans at Indy (- 6 1/2):  Screw the points.  Whoever wins this game will win by more than a TD.  With these offenses, that’s the easy part.  Figuring out which team will muster enough defense to tip the balance is the hard part.  The Saints turned out to be pretty strong last year even with a lot key pieces being new.  Now their core has a year of experience together and should be scary good.  Also, the Colts are replacing the cornerstone of Manning’s protection at left tackle.  But let’s not forget that Indy has a pretty formidable offense.  Ordinarily the rule is that defenses get up to speed faster than offenses.  Unless the offense is run by someone like Peyton Manning.  His command of the no-huddle and pre-snap adjustments will give the Saints more trouble than the Saints offense will give Indy.  I’ll give the points and take the Colts.

Pittsburgh (-3 1/2) at Cleveland:  Only 3 1/2 … here I go again!  The thing is, Cleveland was abysmal last year, and unless they have a change of heart and start Brady Quinn, nothing has changed significantly.  Mind you I’m not suggesting that Quinn should start – just that that would be a major change.  No, lighting up Detroit’s third string at pre-season pace is quite different than facing a D like Pittsburgh’s in high gear.  Pittsburgh.  Add 10 pts to the spread and I might reconsider.

Atlanta at Minnesota (-2 1/2):  Nearly a coin flip for good reason.  Yes, Atlanta sans Vick, and with the questionable Harrington, figures to have their struggles this year.  However, it’s not like Minnesota is a mighty force that will hold their feet to the fire.  With much hesitation I take Minnesota.

Detroit at Oakland (-2 1/2):  Again, a nearly meaningless spread.  This is a sucker line.  The Raiders of the last few years … maybe.  I figure Oakland to be a surprise this year.  Their defense is strong and Culpepper could turn out to be the latest in a long line of re-treads who found glory with the Raiders.  Plus … Detroit?  Oakland’s D can shut them down completely.  A couple of Janikowski field goals would be enough.  Oakland.

Chicago at San Diego (-5 1/2):  At first blush, this seems reasonable.  Chicago was, after all, playing in the Super Bowl just 7 months ago.  Of course en route to that game the Bears defense had to bail out their erratic QB a number of times.  San Diego has the kind of D that can rattle Grossman into a shaky performance coupled with the league’s most formidable offense which won’t allow Urlacher & Co. to make up the difference.  San Diego in a double-digit win.

So there you go.  I pick the favorite and give up points in all the games of note.  It’s not looking good for me this week.  My other picks …

Denver (-3 1/2) at Buffalo, Philadelphia (-2 1/2) at Green Bay, Houston (-1 1/2) over visiting Kansas City, Tennessee (+ 5 1/2) at Jacksonville, New England (-5 1/2) at the NY Jets, Carolina (+1 1/2) at St Louis, Miami (+3 1/2) at Washington, Tampa Bay (+6 1/2) at Seattle, Dallas (-3 1/2) over the visiting NY Giants, Baltimore (+3 1/2) at Cincinnati, San Fran (-3 1/2) over visiting Arizona.

Though home field is not as important, it’s also not a complete non-factor.  I picked too many road teams.